Saturday, December 27, 2008
Status paradox
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Syllogistic
Suppressed Evidence
Example:
Buying the Cray Mac 11 computer for our company was the right thing to do. It meets our company's needs; it runs the programs we want it to run; it will be delivered quickly; and it costs much less than what we had budgeted.This appears to be a good argument, but you'd change your assessment of the argument if you learned the speaker has intentionally suppressed the relevant evidence that the company's Cray Mac 11 was purchased from his brother-in-law at a 30 percent higher price than it could have been purchased elsewhere, and if you learned that a recent unbiased analysis of ten comparable computers placed the Cray Mac 11 near the bottom of the list. If the relevant information is not intentionally suppressed by rather inadvertently overlooked, the fallacy of suppressed evidence also is said to occur, although the fallacy's name is misleading in this case. The fallacy is also called the Fallacy of Incomplete Evidence and Cherry-Picking the Evidence. See also Slanting.
Superstitious Thinking
Example:
I never walk under ladders; it's bad luck.It may be a good idea not to walk under ladders, but a proper reason to believe this is that workers on ladders occasionally drop things, and that ladders might have dripping wet paint that could damage your clothes. An improper reason for not walking under ladders is that it is bad luck to do so.
Subjectivist
Example:
Justine has just given Jake her reasons for believing that the Devil is an imaginary evil person. Jake, not wanting to accept her conclusion, responds with, "That's perhaps true for you, but it's not true for me."
Style Over Substance
Example:
You've just been told by the salesperson that the new Maytag is an excellent washing machine because it has a double washing cycle. If you were to notice that the salesperson smiled at you and was well dressed, this wouldn't add to the quality of the original argument, but unfortunately it does for those who are influenced by style over substance, as most of us are.
Straw Man
Example (a debate before the city council):
Opponent: Because of the killing and suffering of Indians that followed Columbus's discovery of America, the City of Berkeley should declare that Columbus Day will no longer be observed in our city.The speaker has twisted what his opponent said; the opponent never said, nor even indirectly suggested, that everybody who ever came to America from another country somehow oppressed the Indians.Speaker: This is ridiculous, fellow members of the city council. It's not true that everybody who ever came to America from another country somehow oppressed the Indians. I say we should continue to observe Columbus Day, and vote down this resolution that will make the City of Berkeley the laughing stock of the nation.
Stereotyping
Example:
German people aren't good at dancing our sambas. She's German. So, she's not going to be any good at dancing our sambas.This argument is deductively valid, but it's unsound because it rests on a false, stereotypical premise. The grain of truth in the stereotype is that the average German doesn't dance sambas as well as the average South American, but to overgeneralize and presume that ALL Germans are poor samba dancers compared to South Americans is a mistake called "stereotyping."
Specificity
Example:
The trigonometry calculation came out to 35,005.6833 feet, so that's how wide the cloud is up there.
Special Pleading
Example:
Everyone has a duty to help the police do their job, no matter who the suspect is. That is why we must support investigations into corruption in the police department. No person is above the law. Of course, if the police come knocking on my door to ask about my neighbors and the robberies in our building, I know nothing. I'm not about to rat on anybody.In our example, the principle of helping the police is applied to investigations of police officers but not to one's neighbors.
Smokescreen
Example:
Senator, wait before you vote on Senate Bill 88. Do you realize that Delaware passed a bill on the same subject in 1932, but it was ruled unconstitutional for these twenty reasons. Let me list them here.... Also, before you vote on SB 88 you need to know that .... And so on.There is no recipe to follow in distinguishing smokescreens from reasonable appeals to caution and care.
Smear Tactic
Small Sample
Example:
I've eaten in restaurants twice in my life, and both times I've gotten sick. I've learned one thing from these experiences: restaurants make me sick.How big a sample do you need to avoid the fallacy? Relying on background knowledge about a population's lack of diversity can reduce the sample size needed for the generalization. With a completely homogeneous population, a sample of one is large enough to be representative of the population; if we've seen one electron, we've seen them all. However, eating in one restaurant is not like eating in any restaurant, so far as getting sick is concerned. We cannot place a specific number on sample size below which the fallacy is produced unless we know about homogeneity of the population and the margin of error and the confidence level.
Slippery Slope
Example:
Mom: Those look like bags under your eyes. Are you getting enough sleep?The form of a slippery slope fallacy looks like this:Jeff: I had a test and stayed up late studying.
Mom: You didn't take any drugs, did you?
Jeff: Just caffeine in my coffee, like I always do.
Mom: Jeff! You know what happens when people take drugs! Pretty soon the caffeine won't be strong enough. Then you will take something stronger, maybe someone's diet pill. Then, something even stronger. Eventually, you will be doing cocaine. Then you will be a crack addict! So, don't drink that coffee.
A leads to B.Think of the sequence A, B, C, D, ..., Z as a sequence of closely stacked dominoes. The key claim in the fallacy is that pushing over the first one will start a chain reaction of falling dominoes, each one triggering the next. But the analyst asks how likely is it really that pushing the first will lead to the fall of the last? For example, if A leads to B with a probability of 80 percent, and B leads to C with a probability of 80 percent, and C leads to D with a probability of 80 percent, is it likely that A will eventually lead to D? No, not at all; there is about a 50- 50 chance. The proper analysis of a slippery slope argument depends on sensitivity to such probabilistic calculations. Regarding terminology, if the chain of reasoning A, B, C, D, ..., Z is about causes, then the fallacy is called the Domino Fallacy.
B leads to C.
C leads to D.
...
Z leads to HELL.
We don't want to go to HELL.
So, don't take that first step A.
Sharpshooter's
Example:
Psychic Sarah makes twenty-six predictions about what will happen next year. When one, but only one, of the predictions comes true, she says, "Aha! I can see into the future."Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
Example:
A group of students are selected to be interviewed individually by the teacher. Each selected student is told that the teacher has predicted they will do significantly better in their future school work. Actually, though, the teacher has no special information about the students and has picked the group at random. If the students believe this prediction about themselves, then, given human psychology, it is likely that they will do better merely because of the teacher's making the prediction.The prediction will fulfill itself, so to speak, and the students commit the fallacy. This fallacy can be dangerous in an atmosphere of potential war between nations when the leader of a nation predicts that their nation will go to war against their enemy. This prediction could very well precipitate an enemy attack because the enemy calculates that if war is inevitable then it is to their military advantage not to get caught by surprise.
Selective Attention
Example:
Father: Justine, how was your school day today? Another C on the history test like last time?The pessimist who pays attention to all the bad news and ignores the good news thereby commits the fallacy of selective attention. The remedy for this fallacy is to pay attention to all the relevant evidence. The most common examples of selective attention are the fallacy of Suppressed Evidence and the fallacy of Confirmation Bias. See also the Sharpshooter's Fallacy.
Justine: Dad, I got an A- on my history test today. Isn't that great? Only one student got an A.
Father: I see you weren't the one with the A. And what about the math quiz?
Justine: I think I did OK, better than last time.
Father: If you really did well, you'd be sure. What I'm sure of is that today was a pretty bad day for you.