Monday, August 25, 2008

Confirmation Bias

The tendency to look only for evidence in favor of one's controversial hypothesis and not to look for disconfirming evidence, or to pay insufficient attention to it. This is the most common kind of Fallacy of Selective Attention.

Example:

She loves me, and there are so many ways that she has shown it. When we signed the divorce papers in her lawyer's office, she wore my favorite color. When she slapped me at the bar and called me a "handsome pig," she used the word "handsome" when she didn't have to. When I called her and she said never to call her again, she first asked me how I was doing and whether my life had changed. When I suggested that we should have children in order to keep our marriage together, she laughed. If she can laugh with me, if she wants to know how I am doing and whether my life has changed, and if she calls me "handsome" and wears my favorite color on special occasions, then I know she really loves me.

Committing the fallacy of confirmation bias is often a sign that one has adopted some belief dogmatically and isn't seriously setting about to confirm or disconfirm the belief.

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